Lieutenant Island Views : Commentary About Finance, Politics and Baseball

PAC Giving-Down 6% is the New Up!

April 7, 2009
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Who’s kidding who? The fact that PAC contributions fell only 6% in the first two months of 2009 vs. 2007 is remarkable. Big banks which are receiving TARP funding have been virtually out of the PAC business. Add to this the facts that businesses are facing tight liquidity, major losses and an administration espousing squeaky clean policies on political giving. Down ONLY 6% is the new up! The Wall Street Journal and others can write all they want about how political giving is way down. Anything in the range of a 10% or less decline in PAC giving says to this author that PAC giving is actually deemed as an important business priority for the givers’ employers. Anyone who has been in any significant role at a major US corporation knows that PAC giving is voluntary in name only. Whether you are a Democrat or Republican, you never want to receive a call from your boss asking why you have not given to the firm’s PAC! If employers are making such calls today, they must really mean business.

Is the Wall Street Journal in cahoots with business to mask this story or do they just not get the joke?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123905882020994793.html


A Tale of Two Cities (2):

April 3, 2009
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The attached cartoon tickled me. Even my friends who are Yankee fans will get a kick out of it. Sometimes you just can’t make this stuff up!

http://www.weei.com/images/two-cities


Tom Toles’ Take on the Estate Tax

April 3, 2009
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As my mom often tells me, “many a truth is told in jest”. Tom Toles captures the estate tax argument in a cartoon. What is hard to believe, in times like these, is that there is substantive Republican discussion about the estate tax. For those in the Republican leadership who have gripes about the $7million limit before taxation that President Obama proposes, they and their constituents should be happy if they can still pass that level of tax free capital to their children. They may not realize that many who might have been able to do so can no longer do it due to the financial crisis. Likewise, when they had a chance to increase the limit, they overreached and sought to completely eliminate it on a permanent basis. Fighting over this issue now raises a serious issue of certain leaders’ priorities in a conflagration!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/opinions/tomtoles/?name=Toles&date=04032009&type=c


Let’s Look Under the Banks’ Hood (Declining revenues may take care of that nasty compensation issue)

April 1, 2009
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A quick look at the first quarter ’09 Underwriting revenue statistics released today by DealLogic suggests that Underwriting may not be such a big source of increased profitability for banks. While total proceeds raised increased 27% from $1.344 billion to $1.707 billion, industry wide fee income was down 11.9%. The results were far worse for a number of the former industry leaders whose liquidity and stability are in question.The differences are, in part, explained by the fact that there was less activity in the higher margin areas of equity and less than investment grade debt issuance. More interesting is a look at the underwriting revenues of individual banks. Only Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Scotland posted increases in underwriting revenue. Names like Citi, Goldman and BofA did not fair well at all. If Citi and BofA are going to have up first quarters, it won’t be from underwriting. Citi’s first quarter revenues were down 31.3% and B of A’s declined a whopping 56%. The mighty Goldman Sachs fell from third to tenth on the League Table and saw its underwriting revenues fall 45%, which was worse in total dollars and percentage terms than even Citi’s results.

The changes probably reflect a few things. First, the more stable banks, like JP Morgan and Deutsche, are likely to be the leaders going forward. While Citi and BofA were still marginally ahead of Deutsche, their precipitous declines point to an issuer abandoment trend that may not be quickly restored. Were it not for a few old relationships, which probably meant joint books on the right and conferred less real revenue than DealLogic thinks, they would likely be behind Deutsche. Second, were it not for major refinancing by investment grade names, who were taking advantage of market windows and proactively moving to protect their balance sheets, revenues would have been much worse for everyone. These event phenomenons, if true, may not be indicitive of great ongoing revenue streams. Third, Goldman’s fall off reveals just how dependent they really were on equity and less than investment grade issuance. In the last few years they evolved into a higher risk shop dependent on proprietary trading and investments together with higher margin and risk underwriting.

Perhaps the Obama administration need not worry about legislating bank compensation. Decining Underwriting and other bank revenues may do the job for them!!

Bank Underwriting Revenues First Quarter 2009 v 2008 may be found below:

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3106-FeesStocksBonds-Q12009.html


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About author

Mr Thaler is currently the Managing Partner of Lieutenant Island Partners, an organization providing corporate finance advice and general consulting to corporations and not-for-profit organizations. Mr Thaler retired as Vice Chairman of Deutsche Bank Securities in early 2008. His background includes experience as an investment banker, senior manager, business builder, college professor, not for profit board chair and trustee. In his thirty plus years as an investment banker for Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers, he has been involved in numerous significant debt and equity financings, mergers & acquisitions, leverage buyouts, restructurings and cross border transactions. Of particular note, Mr Thaler has been one of the most active participants and strategic advisors to the homebuilding industry. In a period of significant turmoil and losses, he was one of the few active bankers to the industry who did not have either a loss or credit write down. He is currently advising several public builders on strategic matters and is an adjunct professor of finance at Morehouse College in Atlanta, Georgia. Though he lives in New York, he is a life long Red Sox fan! www.LieutenantIslandPartners.com

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